Fear-mongering has been a favorite tool of the main stream media for as long as Americans have been able to pay for such privilege. The Columbian Centinel [sic], for instance, promised that the Louisiana Purchase would be a great folly because “we are to give money of which we have too little for land of which we already have too much.” The Chicago Times would call the Emancipation Proclamation a “monstrous usurpation, a criminal wrong, and an act of national suicide.”
Today’s muckrakers have wasted no time raising all manner of alarm over Trump’s presidency, prophesizing everything from recession to nuclear war, and clutching their pearls with a gasp when accused of sensationalism and falsehood.
Such prophets may gleefully hear their opinions echo about the ivory towers of newsrooms and academia, but would be shocked by the silence emanating from the marketplace. Not only did Trump defy expectations after his victory by sending the Dow Jones Industrial to bigger heights than any president before him, but the global business climate has warmed considerably with the outsourcing of Obama.
Trump’s business-first ethics have inspired a wave of confidence through the United States and into our overseas trade partners, who are also optimistic about the future despite all the yellow journalism that’s fit to print.
Take the oil industry. One of Trump’s critical campaign points touched on the need for energy expansion, including offshore drilling, fracking, and opening up empty space for exploration. Liberals, who hate both inexpensive gasoline and mild winters, promptly prepared thousands of talking points on the impossibility of such an endeavor.
Here we stand just a month into Trump’s presidency, however, and his promises appear to be bearing fruit. Oil prices have gained on the back of OPEC’s agreement to minimize production, a reflection of how the shale-oil revolution has destabilized nations like Iran and Saudi Arabia.
American oil has leapt forward to pick up the slack: we have 80% more oil and gas rigs operating in this nation today than we did in June of last year, with domestic production rising by 10% in the past six months.
Just like the 1970s, higher oil prices have resulted in higher inflation. Unlike the 1970s, however, inflation is welcome at a time when central banks across the world have clamped down on interest rates for years or even decades.
A stagnant bond market has seen the average ten-year value rise by half a percentage point, facilitating fresh interest and speculation in an asset class that has hardly been worth the effort on this side of the millennium.
This would be fantastic news for any Americans frustrated with their portfolio, but it’s good news past our shores as well. Higher industrial prices combined with sliding currency has forced Chinese banks to aggressively open the lending taps and pour in on thick.
This loosening of currency outflow has driven the yuan index close to four-year highs, with economists suggesting that Chinese growth could be 50% greater through 2017 than expected. Although our largest trade partner is also our most vilified trade partner (for better or for worse, Trump has eased back on his promises to label China a currency offender) growth in their GDP quickly translates to growth in ours.
The Chinese are not the sole beneficiaries of this new Trumpian optimism. European and Japanese markets desperately need inflation to prevent them from lowering interest rates (including, in Japan’s case, sub-zero interest rates). Consumer confidence has risen in both zones, leading to stronger domestic growth rather than a reliance on exports.
Meetings between the 45th president and the prime ministers of Canada and Japan suggest a strong preference to continue existing trade deals — while Trump wants to rip up NAFTA, he wants to create a bilateral trade deal with Canada that will continue to bring the Great White North closer to the US economy.
The worst-case scenario dreamt up by the American media, whether they peddle fake news or legitimate journalism, has yet to appear. Nor will it anytime soon. JP Morgan Chase envisions global growth to hit just under three and a half percent this year. That’s a low standard compared to the pre-recession era, but it’s a far stronger benchmark than was ever reached in Obama’s America.
A stubborn media may not speak the facts, but facts are more stubborn than journalists. As Trump’s policies continue to spur global growth, they cannot be hidden for long.
Regards,
Ethan Warrick
Editor
Wealth Authority
