Is the S&P Betting on a Trump Victory in November?

September is a critical period in the presidential election race. Voters start paying closer attention to things that matter to them. And, yes, it’s mostly about the economy. As a reflection and beacon of the economy, U.S. stocks have bounced back from their coronavirus plunge. They are breaking records as they begin rescuing wage earners’ market-based retirement funds.

Many fence-sitting voters don’t like President Trump’s intemperate tweeting and attacks on his political foes. However, if the economy and its not-so-evil twin the stock market continues on its pace, Trump’s chances for reelection will be excellent.

Democrats offer a more avuncular and personable choice in Joe Biden, who credibly swears that he is not a left-wing socialist. But charisma aside, Biden’s tax plan — socialist or not — will roll back Trump’s historic 2017 cuts. What became a trailblazing pace could turn into either stagnation or a downturn as investors and corporations put their money where the tax shelters are.

The recovery has been breathtaking. The S&P 500 bottomed out on March 23, 2020, when the coronavirus took root. From that low the index us up 60%. If the average gain of just .5 percent continues through Election Day, it would be an epic and historic rebound to a potential 3,630.

That comeback could be bolstered by cash infusions from the Federal Reserve, which always reacts to positive indicators and investor optimism. If and when the COVID-19 vaccine emerges to stamp out the pandemic, the economic recovery train will finally leave the station.

President Trump, of course, would like to be the conductor. Incumbent presidents typically get all the blame, but only half the credit for the state of the economy. Half the credit is a good thing when you consider this: Since Ronald Reagan ran for reelection in 1984, the S&P 500 is nine for nine in picking presidential campaign winners. When the index was down, the incumbent’s party lost.

However, there are more wild cards in the 2020 election than normal. Democrats believe that just bragging about a resurging economy won’t help Trump win. Aside from how polarizing he is, some analysts don’t trust the correlation between the S&P and elections is really valid.

Smart money is on two factors affecting the outcome of the election:

If Trump loses, it will because of how his administration handled the COVID pandemic. Again, it’s the numbers: More people in the United States contracted the virus and died from the disease than any other country.

If Trump wins it will be because people see the economy is doing better. Then there’s the law-and-order issue, which the Democrats have only recently acknowledged.

With the economy, the President only gets half the credit. With the pandemic the Democrats will try to give him 100% of the blame for the over 100,000 deaths so far. As for the violence in the cities, Democrats will try to take none of the blame.

The irony is that no president has the of power to control the world’s largest economy nor nature’s most infectious virus.

13 thoughts on “Is the S&P Betting on a Trump Victory in November?”

  1. Are you not willing to put out there the correction Of the CDC On the numbers that were actually Covid-19 deaths. Stop forgetting the actual facts and report correctly. Stop sitting in the fence with your news. Trumps done a fantastic job and his administration. His bedside manner can be crude but the end results are amazing. Everything needs to stop having to be politically correct.

    1. BRAVO you did a GREAT JOB describing Trump. I SOOOOOOOOO AGREE he has DELIVERED on most all he said he would do to improve the bad he inherited in2016
      Thanks for your eloquent words

    2. tRump has done nothing but divided this country. He’s coasted on a economy that was already in place when he entered office. Because of his less than half hearted handling of the covoid epidemic nearly 200,000 thousand are dead and there’s no end in sight. The only reason that the stock market is where it’s at is because of trillion dollar deficits propping it up . We have record unemployment. tRump continues to fan the flames of dividing the country. If tRump manages to steal his way into office again it will most likely result in the end of are national.

  2. The new main stream news media will NEVER tell the actual truth. They fabricate stories and give fake allegations top coverage. Trump is doing a great job. The Demorats want to defund the police, give Social Security to illegals, opent he borders, give medical coverage to the illegals. The Demorats only care about the black people every four years at election time. Charles Barkley stated that and it is true. What have the Demorats done for the people who live in sub standard housing? I could go on and on but won’t.

    1. You speak the truth. I do not understand some people willing to destroy America just because they don’t like the man. You vote Trump to save our country and its freedoms. Biden is a fool and goes back & forth on what he wants just satisfying the audience on that particular day, can’t be trusted and never states his plan of how he will accomplish anything?

  3. I agree with everyone on Biden, he is not stable enough to run this country… President Trump is not always politically “correct”, but as he said in the beginning he is a “business man” not a politician, and that is why millions of people voted him to office back in 2016, we needed change and better policies, which Mr Trump has done . He has kept his word and brought jobs back to America.. all people have been luckier in making more money and having jobs…. enough of the “BS” from the democrats, they can’t get a handle on these riots , how the hell are they gonna run the GOOD OLE USA!!!!!!!!! so PEOPLE vote your conscious and use your brains, don’t get ruined by the DEMON DEMOCRATS…. Mack

    1. I highly doubt that Biden would be able to serve 4 years! He’s not physically or emotionally fit. Then Kamala becomes president. They can somehow get rid of her and guess what?? I am not going to support illegals, when our vets and seniors need help. Nancy Pelosi would be the President in a lawless socialist country! The Purge and Fahrenheit 451. Anyone ever think this was the plan all along? They are all crazy and hateful. If Trump loses, I would move out of the country, but we are running out of places to go!!

  4. Regarding Covid-19, yes, more people in the US have contracted the virus than in other countries, but there are 331 million people living here. The percentage of people in the US who have died (latest count) is 3 percent of the confirmed cases. Italy has 12-13 percent of deaths to confirmed cases, Germany has 3-4 percent of deaths to confirmed cases, and Canada has 6-7 percent of deaths of confirmed cases.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Most Popular

These content links are provided by Content.ad. Both Content.ad and the web site upon which the links are displayed may receive compensation when readers click on these links. Some of the content you are redirected to may be sponsored content. View our privacy policy here.

To learn how you can use Content.ad to drive visitors to your content or add this service to your site, please contact us at [email protected].

Family-Friendly Content

Website owners select the type of content that appears in our units. However, if you would like to ensure that Content.ad always displays family-friendly content on this device, regardless of what site you are on, check the option below. Learn More



Most Popular
Sponsor Content

These content links are provided by Content.ad. Both Content.ad and the web site upon which the links are displayed may receive compensation when readers click on these links. Some of the content you are redirected to may be sponsored content. View our privacy policy here.

To learn how you can use Content.ad to drive visitors to your content or add this service to your site, please contact us at [email protected].

Family-Friendly Content

Website owners select the type of content that appears in our units. However, if you would like to ensure that Content.ad always displays family-friendly content on this device, regardless of what site you are on, check the option below. Learn More