A recent Wall Street Journal article claimed that 43 percent of economists don’t believe U.S. employment will return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023.
“The slowing momentum in the labor market bodes poorly for the broader recovery and points to increasing scarring effects from the crisis,” Oxford Economist Gregory Daco said.
Pointing to the virus spread and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi withholding the next stimulus package, the so-called experts appear blind to clear indicators pointing to precisely the opposite. President Donald Trump says the economy his team of gurus built through deregulation and cutting taxes has bounced back from the downturn faster than any before.
“We are currently witnessing the fastest economic recovery in American history,” Trump said.
The hard economic data appears to support the president’s claim so far. When the country went into lockdown mode, unemployment soared to 14.7 percent in April. In five months, nearly half of displaced workers were back on the job, as the September unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent. During the Obama-Biden administration, unemployment topped 9 percent during the financial crisis in 2009. Failed liberal policies hindered the recovery, and the unemployment rate didn’t fall below 8 percent until 2013. By comparison, the Obama-Biden economy managed less than 2 points in four years while the Trump Administration cut unemployment nearly in half in less than six months.
On other economic fronts, the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirted with 30,000 for months before the pandemic. After plummeting to around 18,500 in March, the rebound certainly appears to be V-shaped. The Dow peaked above 29,000 again in September and continues to hover close to pre-pandemic gains. It’s important to note that under the Trump Administration, the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all set historical records before the pandemic shuttered businesses worldwide.
But politically-motivated naysayers could make the argument that a segment of the workforce remains in a holding pattern. Airlines have started furloughing and permanently releasing employees as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi refuses to broker a stimulus deal to bridge the gap until a vaccine is released. Pelosi recently took heat from even friendly networks like CNN for refusing to agree to a compromise $1.8 trillion package that would put money directly into American families’ bank accounts.
“There are Americans who are being evicted from their homes. They can’t pay the rent. Many Americans are waiting in food lines for the first time in their lives,” CNN’s Wolf Blitzer said to Pelosi. “Can you look them in the eye, Madame Speaker, and explain why you don’t want to accept the president’s latest stimulus offer?”
Economists at Goldman Sachs issued a warning that unless Congress acts to provide fourth-quarter stimulus, stagnation could curb holiday shopping and tamp down annual hiring. Some believe that unless at least $1 trillion is released, the typical 6-percent holiday boost will fall flat. It appears Speaker Pelosi plans to hold struggling Americans and the recovery hostage.
“I think the Democrats are going out of their way to stop these kinds of numbers,” President Trump said.
The reality is that the Trump economy was built to last. The V-shaped recovery proves Democrat policies failed working families during the previous administration. Once the vaccine is distributed, restaurants, resorts, airlines, and a wide range of close human contact businesses will swing back into full force. Unemployment could quickly drop to 3.5 percent again or lower. That’s a prediction that Democrats don’t want on the books until after Election Day.